Mortality Burden of Heatwaves in Sydney, Australia Is Exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island and Climate Change: Can Tree Cover Help Mitigate the Health Impacts?

Heatwaves are associated with increased mortality and exacerbated by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Thus, to inform climate change mitigation adaptation, we quantified burden of historical heatwave days in Sydney, Australia, assessed contribution UHI effect used projection data estimate future health impacts. We also potential for tree cover mitigate against Mortality (2006–2018) records were linked census population data, weather observations (1997–2016) projections 2100. Heatwave-attributable excess deaths calculated based on risk estimates from a published study Sydney. High resolution satellite air temperature excesses green determine effects heat-related mortality. These show that >90% would not breach thresholds Sydney if there no numbers could increase fourfold under most extreme scenario. found canopy reduces heat, widespread planting offset increases heat-attributable as warming progresses.